On 1 October 2026 EUROMETAL published comments from Kyiv-based think tank GMK Center to Platts, part of S&P Global Energy. The European Union will need an additional 8 million to 11 million metric tonnes of steel scrap later this decade if it lifts crude steel output and starts the electric-arc furnaces already announced.

The first increment is trade policy. GMK Center said the EU must raise crude steel production by 12 to 13 percent by 2027 from 2025 levels to replace falling imports under steel safeguards and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. That replacement would need an extra 4 million to 6 million tonnes of scrap. The think tank put previous EU imports of long rolled steel at about 7 million tonnes a year, half of it made on the blast-furnace route. Those volumes, it said, are likely to be replaced by scrap-intensive EAF production inside the Union.

The second increment is new furnaces. GMK Center said commissioning of new EAFs by 2028 could add another 4 million to 5 million tonnes of domestic scrap demand. It listed announced projects including Metinvest’s 2.7 million-tonne greenfield plant in Piombino, Italy; Voestalpine’s 2.5 million tonnes at Linz and Donawitz, Austria; Marcegaglia’s 2.1 million-tonne unit in Fos-sur-Mer, France; ArcelorMittal’s 2 million-tonne EAF in Dunkirk, France; and NLMK’s developments in Verona (plus 0.5 million tonnes) and Belgium. Those works are expected to run mainly on scrap in their first years, until cheaper DRI or HBI is available on the EU market. Together they could generate up to 5 million tonnes a year of extra scrap demand once they run.

The forecast assumes a scrap and DRI/HBI mix and utilisation below nameplate, because future run rates are not known. The mix will move with feedstock prices from quarter to quarter. GMK Center said steelmakers are adding scrap-based EAF capacity rather than capital-intensive DRI-hydrogen plants.

Yards, traders, mills and the 2027 outlet

Higher future demand should support European scrap collection, GMK Center said. Meeting that demand from local arising is harder while the EU still ships a double-digit surplus. The think tank put net exports to third countries at 11.5 million tonnes in 2025.

From 21 May 2027 the Commission’s draft under the revised Waste Shipment Regulation would close most non-OECD destinations for EU metal waste. GMK Center said Brussels is looking to cut annual steel-scrap exports by 4 million to 4.1 million tonnes, or 25 to 26 percent, from 2025 levels. That file is already on this site: the 18 September draft list, rerouting toward Turkey and the UK, and why the EU wants to limit exports. CBAM prices imported steel products, not scrap under CN 7204. The industrial effect is more EAF melt inside the Union if those furnaces actually run.

For a German, Italian, French or Austrian yard the practical question is whether the named works will lift HMS, shredded and new-production cuttings in the next two years, or whether the extra metal still has to go to Turkey and other seaborne buyers. A trader booking North Sea or Black Sea cargoes should treat the 2027 non-OECD list and this demand forecast as two different clocks: one is a legal outlet, the other is mill utilisation. Processors preparing furnace feed should keep copper residuals and size on the ticket; new EAF flats programmes are usually tighter on residual copper than a rebar melt.

Parliament’s September vote to extend CBAM to more downstream steel and aluminium goods points the same way: more of the melt that serves Europe is likely to be scrap-based and inside, or next to, the single market. That does not by itself lift a yard’s October stem. It does tell a seller which mills may be in the market for prepared ferrous once the furnaces are hot.

How to name the lot

Name the grade the mill already buys: HMS 1&2 80/20, shredded, or new-production cuttings if that is what you have. State tonnes, packing, city or load port, and whether the sale is ex-works, delivered mill, FOB or CFR. If the arising is new production rather than obsolete scrap, say so. Do not write a carbon claim on the parcel.

Verified companies can list on live lots or post a wanted enquiry. Request access if you have ferrous feed or an EAF programme to cover.