On 2 October 2026 Reuters, citing LSEG data, reported that the front-month COMEX European duty-paid aluminium premium rose to $574 a tonne on Thursday 1 October. That print was 10 percent higher than the previous session and the highest since 8 June. The premium is paid on top of the London Metal Exchange three-month aluminium contract for physical metal delivered in Europe. The figure is the duty-paid premium on physical P1020 in Europe.

Two industry sources told Reuters the jump reflected concern that a cut in the United States tariff on Canadian aluminium, from 50 percent to 25 percent, would pull Canadian metal back toward the US market and leave Europe short. Talks between Washington and Ottawa collapsed in mid-August. Reuters recorded a later remark that a trade deal with Canada was still expected. A tariff cut would reverse a flow that has already changed this year: EU imports of aluminium from Canada rose 80 percent year on year in January to July, to 269,839 tonnes, as the bloc replaced volumes lost from the Middle East.

The same Reuters note put the COMEX Japan aluminium premium at $226 a tonne, down 35 percent since the end of July and the lowest since mid-March. Consultancy CRU, in a 24 September market note, said Asian premiums were retreating as inventories built and demand stayed weak, and that new smelter capacity due in 2027 would reach Asia first. Three-month LME aluminium fell for a fifth session on the Friday Reuters covered, touching $3,105 a tonne, its lowest since 7 July.

What the premium means for aluminium scrap

European remelters price clean aluminium scrap against the same LME contract plus a regional physical premium. A $574 duty-paid premium with a weaker LME still leaves a high all-in cost for primary units in Europe. That is why a remelter will look at Tata, old extrusions, Taldon / UBC or Twitch before buying more P1020. The premium print should not be copied onto a yard ticket as if it were the scrap price.

The feedstock constraint is already on the public record. On 22 September Reuters reported that Constellium may drop planned EU recycling expansions if policymakers do not resolve a scrap shortfall linked to used metal leaving the bloc. The company said it was investigating projects across packaging, automotive and aerospace that could be larger or smaller than a previous €130 million recycling expansion at Neuf-Brisach in France, and that those projects would not proceed without scrap. Constellium recycles some of its own production in a closed loop and also buys external scrap. It told Reuters it was sceptical that waste-shipment limits would hold, given the number of non-OECD countries seeking exemptions.

The same Constellium remarks expected the EU carbon border levy to push European aluminium premiums higher. CBAM prices imported aluminium products, not scrap under CN 7602. Parliament’s 15 September vote to extend the levy to more downstream goods is still awaiting talks with the Council. A higher primary premium does not write a recycled-content bonus into a skip.

The Commission withdrew a planned 15 percent export duty on aluminium scrap earlier in September. EGA called that withdrawal a net negative for a pending German remelt expansion. Retention is now being pursued through the Waste Shipment Regulation. The 18 September draft non-OECD list remains open for comment until 16 October. That file decides whether a waste lot can still leave for India and other non-OECD melts after 21 May 2027. It does not set today’s remelt bid.

Who it affects among yards, traders, mills and processors

A yard with new or old extrusions, Taldon or Twitch in Germany, France, Italy or the Benelux should treat the $574 premium as a signal that European physical aluminium remains tight, not as a mark-up that can be added without a buyer. Offer the grade the furnace already charges. Mixed old sheet and irony aluminium do not substitute for primary can-stock or extrusion billet.

Traders quoting seaborne aluminium scrap toward Asia are looking at the other side of the same map. Reuters and CRU both describe Asian primary premiums as falling while Europe is tight. That divergence is about primary metal. A waste lot booked to India or another non-OECD destination still has to clear the draft authorised-country list if it ships after May 2027. Do not rebuild the offer around a US–Canada tariff that has not been cut.

EU remelters that argued for scrap retention wanted more clean units at home so new furnaces could be filled. Constellium’s point is that expansion capital waits on feedstock. Until a buyer states otherwise, sell the specification the receiving furnace can charge. End-of-waste status still belongs on the file if the seller claims the metal is no longer waste.

Processors sorting shredder aluminium should keep Twitch separate from Zorba. A high European primary premium does not turn mixed non-ferrous concentrate into extrusion scrap.

How to name the lot

Name the grade the melt already uses: Tata or new extrusions; old extrusions, painted or mill-finish; Taldon / UBC; Twitch; Tense / cast. Then tonnes, packing or bales, city or load port, and whether the material is still waste or claimed as end-of-waste. Do not write $574, the LME print, or a CBAM saving on the parcel.

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