On 29 September 2026 SteelOrbis reported from the last day of its Autumn Conference and the 95th IREPAS meeting in Belgrade. The IREPAS raw material suppliers committee said higher freight, energy and financing costs, together with possible scrap-export restrictions, are putting pressure on steelmaking raw-material trade. SteelOrbis's 28 September welcome coverage said the meeting drew 300 participants, including 96 people from 36 steel producers in 15 countries and 75 delegates from 43 raw-material suppliers.

The IREPAS chairman, speaking for the longs producers' and exporters' association, told the same meeting that the Black Sea and the Middle East are disrupting trade. SteelOrbis recorded damaged ports and owners unwilling to sail in the Black Sea, and attacks on bulk carriers and oil tankers affecting Middle East flows. Energy prices for oil, gas and coal have risen and are lifting costs for mills, scrap suppliers and shipowners. The chairman also listed a tighter trade rule-set: the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, EU steel safeguards applied after 1 July, US tariffs, and scrap-trade restrictions in around 40 countries.

Demand, the chairman said, remains relatively weak outside work tied to artificial-intelligence data centres. Costs, not offtake, are now setting the direction, and steel prices have been rising in almost all markets even while demand is soft. That is a mill-side reading. It does not by itself fix an October scrap ticket at a German or Italian works.

Rhine water and European mill offtake

The suppliers committee told SteelOrbis that Rhine water levels, comparable with 2018, have disrupted movements of scrap and steel in Europe. Some material has stayed in inventory instead of reaching the mill or the load port, and business has been postponed. The same briefing described European steel capacity utilisation of around 65 percent as unsustainable.

That inland-water problem is already set out as a standing guide in Rhine low water and scrap logistics. The Belgrade briefing applies it to this autumn's bookings. A yard that can only move by barge should not offer a delivered-mill or FOB cargo as if the river is at a normal draft. Freight, collection costs and European scrap margins still sit between the collection ticket and the mill bid.

The IREPAS producers committee, with Spain's CELSA Group speaking for it, said energy and raw-material costs are expected to keep pressure on mills at least through the end of winter. European producers are particularly affected by energy. Safeguards and CBAM give some protection, the committee said, but they do not make up for insufficient or expensive power. The committee also said India is expected to stay focused on its domestic steel market over the next five years.

The suppliers committee said scrap will remain the principal charge for electric-arc producers. Hot-briquetted iron and direct-reduced iron can supplement scrap; the committee does not expect them to replace it. Cost limits where those iron units are used, and energy availability limits where they can be made. Europe, the committee said, has enough scrap for its own steelmakers and has opposed adding further restrictions and administrative requirements to the export trade.

India, Pakistan and how cargoes are being booked

On import scrap into India and Pakistan, the suppliers committee said disruptions have changed how buyers purchase. Counterparties that used to take smaller quantities on shorter lead times now have to consider larger volumes and longer delivery periods. Higher freight and financing costs make that shift harder. Demand for European material has increased.

A trader who still offers a short-lead container as if the old South Asian pattern holds will miss the financing and the vessel. The recent Pakistan shredded reading already showed freight and the Red Sea holding the CFR number while Pakistani mills bought only what they needed.

The committee also flagged the Commission's 18 September draft list of non-OECD countries that would be authorised to receive certain EU waste after 21 May 2027. North Africa and South Asia are significant and consistent buyers of European scrap, it said. Restrictions could cut their access to EU material and weaken recycling activity inside Europe. The 2027 risk the committee named was increasing trade barriers and more regional trade, with European exporters facing extra requirements.

The draft itself, and the reroute toward Turkey and UK origin, are already covered in the Fastmarkets reroute briefing and in BIR's call for evidence by 9 October. The public consultation remains open until 16 October. Those two articles remain the place to read the draft list and the evidence deadline.

Who buys European scrap still starts with Turkish electric-arc works for the seaborne surplus. Turkey is an OECD member and is not on the draft non-OECD list. HMS 1&2 80/20 and shredded remain the grades on those cargoes.

Who it affects among yards, traders, mills and processors

EU yards that sell waste scrap to India, Pakistan, Egypt or Morocco should treat 2026 loadings under today's shipment rules and 2027 programmes as a separate file. Name the recovery plant and whether the lot is waste or claimed as end-of-waste. Do not assume a South Asian or North African recovery that the 18 September draft would not authorise for metal waste.

UK yards sit outside the EU Waste Shipment Regulation. If the draft is adopted as written, South Asian mills that lose an EU waste origin will look harder at UK and other non-EU supply. That does not clear a prompt Pakistan or India book this week. It does change which origin a 2027 programme can name.

Traders sitting between a European yard and an Indian or Pakistani mill need to write the larger lot and the longer lead time that IREPAS recorded, and to split ocean freight and financing out of the mill bid. Higher interest rates, the committee said, are pushing companies to keep lead times short, buy against immediate requirements and avoid large inventories. A buyer that now needs a bigger cargo and a financier that wants a shorter book are the same negotiation.

European electric-arc mills remain the domestic offtake. A Rhine-bound delivered-mill parcel is a different specification and a different logistics file from a deep-sea HMS or shredded cargo. A processor that can document density, copper residual and moisture on shredded, or the 80/20 split on HMS, is easier to book than an unanalysed mix offered as European scrap.

How to name the lot

Name HMS 1&2 80/20 or shredded (ISRI 211) if that is the product. State tonnes, packing, load city or port, and whether the sale is ex-works, delivered mill, FOB or CFR. If the river draft or a rail diversion changes the delivery, write that on the offer. If you have a copper residual or a moisture method, put it on the offer. Do not invent a residual you have not measured.

If the intended recovery is outside the OECD, name the country and the plant and say whether the material is waste or claimed as end-of-waste. OECD and non-OECD shipment checks still decide the file. For a 2027 EU waste programme, treat India, Pakistan, Egypt and Morocco as destinations the 18 September draft would not authorise for metal waste unless the adopted list changes.

Verified companies can place the parcel on live lots or post a wanted enquiry. Request access if you sell European scrap or buy for a mill or a deep-sea programme.