On 8 October 2026 the Bureau of International Recycling published a summary of its Ferrous Division World Mirror for October, together with the Division’s “World Steel Recycling in Figures” update for January–June 2026. In the first half the EU-27 remained the world’s largest exporter of recycled steel. Overseas shipments rose 4.5 percent year on year to 8.520 million tonnes.
The same update shows that the added export volume did not go mainly to Turkey. EU deliveries to Turkey fell 2.6 percent to 5.446 million tonnes. Egypt took 1.106 million tonnes, almost double the year-earlier volume. Pakistan took 0.355 million tonnes, up 41.2 percent. India took 0.427 million tonnes, down 11.8 percent.
Those four destinations still take most of the EU surplus that leaves the bloc. BIR’s Mirror states that India, Egypt and Morocco are not proposed for authorisation to receive metals under the Commission’s 18 September draft list. From 21 May 2027, a non-OECD shipment covered by that system is prohibited unless the country and the waste stream are on the authorised list. The public consultation on the draft remains open until 16 October. Recycling Europe has already reported that Pakistan would also drop out of the metal book.
What the H1 book actually moved
BIR’s figures sit on worldsteel production data covering 70 countries. Global crude steel output in the first half was 931.5 million tonnes, 0.7 percent lower than a year earlier. The EU-27 melted 65.4 million tonnes, down 0.3 percent, and used 38.138 million tonnes of recycled steel, down 3.2 percent. The bloc therefore used less scrap at home while it shipped more of it abroad.
Turkey remained the world’s largest recycled-steel importer. Its overseas purchases rose 3.1 percent to 9.696 million tonnes. The leading suppliers into that book were the United States (1.773 million tonnes, up 2.9 percent), the Netherlands (1.202 million tonnes, down 20 percent), the United Kingdom (1.117 million tonnes, up 20.8 percent), Romania (0.749 million tonnes, up 56.8 percent) and Belgium (0.739 million tonnes, almost unchanged). That origin split matches the later January–August TUIK tally, in which UK tonnes overtook Dutch supply.
India’s global recycled-steel imports fell 49.1 percent in the first half to 2.330 million tonnes. The Mirror’s regional notes put the first-quarter drop at more than 55 percent and tie it to high international scrap values, a weaker rupee, subdued melt and more domestic scrap and direct-reduced iron. India’s own recycled-steel use still jumped 17 percent to 22.5 million tonnes. A yard that used to count on an Indian container for mixed ferrous or stainless should treat that outlet as selective, not as a standing bid.
The United Kingdom, which sits outside the EU-27 export total, shipped 3.374 million tonnes in the first half, up 8 percent. Its main buyers were Turkey (0.964 million tonnes), Egypt (0.804 million tonnes, up 62.8 percent), Morocco (0.607 million tonnes, up 26.4 percent) and Pakistan (0.431 million tonnes). UK sellers therefore have the same North African and South Asian exposure as EU yards, plus a Turkey book that was slightly smaller than a year earlier.
Who buys European scrap still starts with Turkish mills for the surplus that does not stay in the EU. The H1 figures show a second book that grew much faster: Egypt from the EU and from the UK, and Pakistan from the EU.
September in Turkey and the 2027 list
The October Mirror says Turkish finished-steel sales in September supported recycled-steel demand and that prices gained upward momentum. Imported Chinese billet did not reach competitive levels against ferrous scrap, and disruptions to Russian-origin billet and slab limited cheap semi-finished alternatives. That is the same Turkish support Assofermet recorded for the late-September lift in Italy.
The Mirror also says third-quarter low water on some European waterways lengthened transit, cut barge capacity and pushed more tonnes onto road and rail. Feedback from Scandinavia put sea freight to Turkey at record-high levels and treated freight as one of the main variables for exporters. Rhine low water and the IREPAS freight discussion already described that squeeze.
On the draft waste list, BIR’s Ferrous Division says closing established outlets would reduce competition for European recycled steel, depress values and create regional surpluses if EU mills cannot absorb the available volume. Fastmarkets has already set out how those tonnes would be pushed toward Turkey and other OECD destinations. The H1 figures show why that reroute is not a small book. Egypt alone took more than a million EU tonnes in six months, and Pakistan’s EU intake was growing quickly.
Until the final act is published, a contract into Alexandria, an Indian west-coast port or another non-authorised non-OECD destination for delivery after May 2027 is a regulatory risk, not only a freight risk. OECD and non-OECD shipment checks belong on the offer, not after the vessel is stemmed. BIR has asked members to compare the draft annex with their own destinations and material codes; the evidence window it set for 9 October has now closed, and the Commission consultation runs to 16 October.
Who it affects among yards, traders, mills and processors
Export-oriented EU yards that have grown Egypt and Pakistan as a second book behind Turkey now have a documented H1 volume in those destinations and a draft rule that would cut several of them off in May 2027. Those yards should keep Turkey and other OECD outlets live, and should not price a 2027 programme as if Alexandria or a South Asian waste-status stem is assured.
Traders booking deep-sea HMS scrap or shredded scrap need to write the destination country’s status on the fixture. A May 2027 stem into a non-authorised non-OECD port cannot be treated as a rollover of a 2026 contract. Intra-EU and UK-to-Turkey stems are a different legal book.
EU electric-arc mills that want more domestic scrap after 2027 should read the H1 numbers as they stand: the bloc used less recycled steel while it exported more. Extra domestic intake is not automatic. A mill that wants those tonnes has to bid against the current export netback, including the freight that Scandinavian and Rhine shippers are already paying.
Processors preparing fragmentiser steel or heavy melting steel for export should keep the specification the mill already uses and record whether the lot is waste or end-of-waste. End-of-waste changes the shipment test; it does not change the chemistry.
How to name a seaborne ferrous lot
Write the grade the receiving melt already uses. For a Turkey, Egypt or Pakistan stem that is usually HMS 1&2 80/20 or shredded 211, or the mill’s own E3/E40 language if the buyer is intra-EU. Do not invent a copper cap, a density or an analysis you have not measured.
State tonnes, packing, load port or yard, and the intended discharge range. Say whether the material moves as waste or as end-of-waste, and whether the destination is OECD or still waiting on the 2027 list. CFR Marmara, CFR Alexandria and delivered northern Italy are different contracts.
Verified companies can place the parcel on live lots or post a wanted enquiry. Request access if you sell deep-sea ferrous or buy for an electric-arc programme.