On 27 October 2026 the Bureau of International Recycling’s Ferrous Division spent its Malaga plenary on Africa. BIR published the session the next day. SteelOrbis carried a same-day write-up from Brescia. Recycling International covered the investment-risk part of the same panel. World Steel Association figures released on 23 October sit behind the production numbers the speakers used.
African steel demand is expected to grow by about 4.4 percent in 2026, against a weaker global picture. worldsteel’s September release puts African crude-steel output at 19.0 million tonnes in January–September, 9.7 percent above a year earlier. The same table recorded 2.2 million tonnes in September, up 10.6 percent. Those six reporting countries are Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, South Africa and Tunisia.
BIR recorded that crude steel on the continent is still dominated by Egypt, Algeria and South Africa, with Morocco and Libya smaller. The Material Recycling Association of India told the room to treat north, west, east and south as four markets with four strategies. Africa produces about 24 kg of steel per person against 284 kg in Europe. The same briefing put Africa at one fifth of world population, with 60 percent under 25, and said today’s low use is tomorrow’s arising. The non-ferrous session on 26 October treated copper-alloy export outlets separately.
What that means for a European ferrous book
The first-half export book already showed why North Africa is no longer a footnote. BIR’s October Ferrous World Mirror put EU-27 recycled-steel shipments to Egypt at 1.106 million tonnes in the first half, almost double a year earlier, while extra-EU exports rose 4.5 percent to 8.520 million tonnes and EU mills used less scrap at home. SteelOrbis added the Division’s H1 African melt of 12.6 million tonnes, up 10 percent, with Egypt at 5.7 million tonnes and scrap imports into Egypt at 2.1 million tonnes, up 98.6 percent. See BIR’s H1 export note.
Navigate Commodities told the session that the Egypt lift later slowed. Chinese finished-steel imports are pressing local melt, and more direct-reduced iron can displace scrap in the electric-arc charge. The same briefing treated Algerian DRI-fed plants as a reason not to read every announced African furnace as imported-scrap demand. Morocco was the exception in that reading: new electric capacity has supported scrap purchases and cut the use of imported semis for rerolling. Announced projects and operating plants are different books.
Egypt and Morocco are already net importers of recycled steel. Both sit off the Commission’s 18 September draft list of non-OECD countries that would be authorised to receive metal waste after 21 May 2027. Navigate Commodities said a closed metal column would hit ferrous trade first and would fall hardest on smaller container, or “box”, traders. The same speaker said those two destinations could then buy more from the United States and the United Kingdom. The final list is still due on 21 November. See the draft metal-waste list and OECD and non-OECD shipment rules.
Stelaris told the panel that, over five or six years, most of Africa has moved from a group of 15 to 18 exporting countries to net import. Nigerian imported-scrap intake was said to have risen 300 percent in one year, from a still-small base. That is a west-African container book, not a substitute for Alexandria.
South Africa’s export rules and what they do to collection
South Africa’s Price Preference System requires a discounted local offer before an export permit, and a 20 percent export duty sits on top. XA Global Trade Advisors said the 14-year arrangement is meant to keep newly produced steel cheap; eighteen months earlier South African long products were cheaper than China’s. When the scrap price falls, collection falls, and the mini-mills that wanted the cheap feed then face a thinner pile.
The Metal Recyclers Association of South Africa said melt customers sit inland around Johannesburg, so a coastal recycler pays extra freight and collection stops paying. Employment in that industry was put at 15,000 then 9,000, with continued shrinkage. SteelOrbis recorded the same panel on weak intra-African road and rail links and the absence of a usable river system. A European yard should not treat a South African bid as a standing export outlet.
Recycling International recorded Enicor’s distinction between trading a cargo into Africa and putting plant capital there. Political and regulatory risk sit on the investment file. A seaborne HMS or shredded stem is a different contract from a yard or shear on the ground.
Who it affects among yards, traders, mills and processors
EU export yards that grew an Egypt or Morocco book behind Turkey now have a documented H1 volume and a draft rule that would close those waste destinations in May 2027. Those yards should keep Turkey and other OECD outlets live. Fastmarkets already described how the draft would push ferrous tonnes toward Turkey and UK exporters. Who buys European scrap still starts with Turkish mills for the surplus that does not stay in the EU.
UK yards are not bound by the EU waste list on their own exports, and Navigate Commodities named the United Kingdom and the United States as the obvious replacement sellers into Egypt and Morocco if the metal column stays closed. A UK seller that already ships to Alexandria or a Moroccan port should still write destination, waste status and the mill’s specification on the ticket. Intra-EU stems remain a different legal book.
Traders who treat “Africa” as one enquiry will mis-price the lot. An Egyptian electric-arc mill buying HMS 1&2 or shredded 211 is not a Moroccan melt that has just substituted scrap for imported billet, and neither is an Algerian DRI-charged furnace. A Nigerian container from a small base is a third book. Write the country and the plant.
European electric-arc mills that expect 2027 North African tonnes to come home should read the H1 numbers as they stand: the bloc used less recycled steel while it exported more. Extra domestic intake is not automatic. A mill that wants those tonnes has to bid against the current export netback.
Processors preparing fragmentiser steel or heavy melting steel for a North African stem should keep the specification the mill already uses and record whether the lot is waste or end-of-waste. End-of-waste changes the shipment test; it does not change the chemistry.
How to name the lot
Write the grade the receiving melt already uses. For an Egyptian, Moroccan or Turkish stem that is usually HMS 1&2 80/20 or shredded 211, or the mill’s own E3/E40 language if the buyer is intra-EU. See HMS scrap and shredded scrap. Do not invent a copper cap, a density or an analysis you have not measured.
State tonnes, packing, load port or yard, and the intended discharge range. Say whether the material moves as waste or as end-of-waste, and whether the destination is OECD or still waiting on the 2027 list. CFR Alexandria, CFR Tangier and delivered northern Italy are different contracts.
Verified companies can place the parcel on live lots or post a wanted enquiry. Request access if you sell deep-sea ferrous or buy for an electric-arc programme.