On 5 October 2026 Hellenic Shipping News reprinted comments from the European Steel Association (Eurofer) to Platts, part of S&P Global Energy. Eurofer said the EU steel industry consumed 74.4 million metric tonnes of ferrous scrap in 2025 and 38.1 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, keeping melt and scrap use broadly in line with the first half of 2025. The association expects scrap demand to rise as more electric-arc capacity is commissioned, and it said mills will want prepared, higher-quality feed for those furnaces.

Eurofer counted 20 new EAF projects announced by EU steel companies for commissioning between 2026 and 2030, representing 44.1 million tonnes a year of steelmaking capacity. Of that, 33.8 million tonnes a year is progressing and 10.3 million tonnes a year is delayed or suspended. The association warned that 44.1 million tonnes is nameplate capacity, not extra annual scrap demand, and that actual output will depend on market conditions and on whether each investment proceeds.

Platts applied a 50:50 scrap-to-other-metallics mix and 80 percent utilisation to the 33.8 million tonnes that is progressing. On that arithmetic, about 27 million tonnes of steel would need 14.2 million to 14.8 million tonnes of scrap and 14.2 million to 15 million tonnes of DRI or HBI, after a typical EAF metallic yield of 90 to 95 percent. That figure is a utilisation case for the progressing list, not a mill booking for this quarter.

Demand this year is still flat

On 1 October Eurofer published its Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2026-2027. EU crude steel production fell 2.9 percent to a record low of 125.8 million tonnes in 2025 and declined a further 1 percent in the first five months of 2026. Capacity utilisation improved only to 67 percent from 65 percent in 2025. Apparent steel consumption is forecast to grow 0.1 percent in 2026 and 2.3 percent in 2027, remaining about 7 million tonnes below 2019.

EU steel exports to third countries fell 20 percent in the first half of 2026, including declines of 29 percent to the United States, 24 percent to India, 21 percent to Turkey and 18 percent to China. The EU remains a net importer of steel. Output in steel-using sectors is forecast to grow 1.5 percent in 2026 after two years of decline, with construction and mechanical engineering supporting the figure and automotive output forecast to fall another 0.9 percent.

Energy costs help explain why part of the furnace list is not moving. Eurofer said European gas prices have fluctuated around €50 per megawatt-hour in 2026, with recent peaks around €80, 132 percent higher than at the start of the year. A yard should not treat a 2030 nameplate as this month’s offtake while utilisation sits at 67 percent and the 2026 steel book is almost flat. The GMK Center note to Platts already on this site used a different method and a different total: 8 million to 11 million extra tonnes later this decade if output is lifted and announced furnaces start. Eurofer’s tally is the industry body’s own project list, including the 10.3 million tonnes that is delayed or suspended.

Who it affects among yards, traders, mills and processors

For a German, French, Italian or Benelux yard the practical question is which of the progressing 33.8 million tonnes will take HMS, shredded or new-production cuttings in 2027 and 2028, and which still sit behind a delayed permit or a weak longs book. The Gijón longs stop already showed how a thin wire-rod book can idle a site for a week even when an EAF is still scheduled.

Traders booking North Sea or Black Sea cargoes should keep two clocks. The first is mill utilisation inside the EU. The second is the Commission’s draft under the Waste Shipment Regulation, which from 21 May 2027 would close most non-OECD destinations for EU metal waste. Eurofer told Platts that Brussels is looking to cut annual steel-scrap exports by 4 million to 4.1 million tonnes, or 25 to 26 percent, from 2025 levels. The association also said 32 non-OECD countries applied to keep receiving EU waste, 24 of those applications covered metals, and five were accepted. That file is already on this site: the 18 September draft list, rerouting toward Turkey and the UK, why the EU wants to limit exports, and OECD versus non-OECD shipment checks.

Eurofer added that around 72 percent of EU ferrous-metal waste exports already go to OECD destinations, and 64.4 percent of that OECD flow goes to Turkey. The draft list therefore leaves the main deep-sea buyer open. Who buys European scrap still starts with Turkey. A stem that used Egypt, Pakistan or another non-OECD melt needs a 2027 plan. A stem that already works CFR Turkish ports does not change because of the five accepted applications.

CBAM prices imported steel products, not scrap under CN 7204. Parliament’s September vote to extend the levy to more downstream goods points toward more melt inside, or next to, the single market if those furnaces actually run. Processors preparing furnace feed should keep copper residuals and size on the ticket. New EAF flats programmes are usually tighter on residual copper than a rebar melt.

How to name the lot

Name the grade the mill already buys: HMS 1&2 80/20, shredded, or new-production cuttings if that is what you have. State tonnes, packing, city or load port, and whether the sale is ex-works, delivered mill, FOB or CFR. If the arising is new production rather than obsolete scrap, say so. Do not write a carbon claim, an EAF-capacity figure, or a 2027 export-cut on the parcel.

Verified companies can list on live lots or post a wanted enquiry. Request access if you have ferrous feed or an EAF programme to cover.