On 22 September 2026 EUWID Recycling published its monthly German ferrous survey. After two quiet holiday months, mills in Germany and neighbouring countries had restarted and were taking more scrap in September. Yards also reported old and new arisings picking up. Prices for the month still rolled over. The book was livelier than July and August, respondents said, but it still lacked momentum.

The same survey, first summarised in German on 18 September, is the first full September reading after the holiday restart. Recyclers told EUWID they were cautiously optimistic for autumn. They expect mark-ups in October. Healthy mill order books were one reason. The main reason they named was a recovery in the export business to Turkey.

That export bid is a different contract from the Italian imported scrap book Kallanish described last week. Italian works take intra-EU cargoes so they do not bid up a fragmented domestic market. German yards that clear surplus tonnes still look at Iskenderun and Aliaga. Who buys European scrap still starts with those Turkish electric-arc works for the seaborne surplus.

Why October is tied to Turkey

GMK Center’s August review, published in mid-September, said the Turkish import market had been stagnant for most of August and then turned at the end of the month as demand recovered and alternative raw materials stayed tight. European sellers raised indicative prices into Turkey after that late-August turn. GMK also recorded Turkey taking 1.66 million tonnes of scrap in July, 12.4 percent more than a year earlier, with the United States and the Netherlands the largest suppliers that month. For January to July, Turkish scrap imports were 11.36 million tonnes, up 4.4 percent year on year.

Germany is a net exporter on that map. GMK put first-half 2026 German scrap exports at 4.05 million tonnes, one percent higher than a year earlier, and imports at 2.24 million tonnes, up five percent. Extra tonnes went mainly to Italy and Austria. Luxembourg took less. A German yard can therefore have a domestic mill bid and an export bid in the same week, and the export bid is what EUWID’s respondents now treat as the October driver.

This week Mesteel said Turkish mills were still restocking and that import values for HMS 1&2 80/20 had moved higher again, though offers above 400 dollars a tonne CFR were meeting resistance. Domestic rebar sales were supporting mill buying. Finished-steel export activity from Turkey remained comparatively weak. SteelRadar had already noted on 10 September that low mill stocks and tight Black Sea billet, slab and pig iron were keeping scrap in the charge even when mills were cautious on price.

For a German or Benelux seller the question is timing. An October domestic markup that EUWID’s respondents expect will be easier to hold if Turkish cargoes keep moving. If that restock pauses, the domestic rollover can last another month. Assofermet’s early-September note, carried by SteelOrbis, had already described southern Germany as unchanged or slightly easier while Spain absorbed more of the Turkish lift. That matches a September rollover rather than a September rally.

Empty wagons sit on top of low water

EUWID’s respondents still could not move sold scrap reliably. Recyclers that normally ship by inland waterway continue to have major problems delivering because of low water. The Rhine low-water constraint is already familiar: draft cuts barge payload and pushes tonnes onto rail and road. Freight and collection costs then eat the margin even when the mill bid is unchanged.

The added complaint in the September survey is rail. Respondents called German railway performance a disappointment and reported major problems with empty-wagon provision. EUWID said that confirmed a short survey the Circular Metal Association (CMA) had just run.

Recycling Portal published the CMA figures on 16 September. Seventy-nine member companies answered between 3 and 27 August about January to June 2026. More than 60 percent said that, on average, more than a tenth of the wagons they had ordered did not appear. About a third reported shortfalls above 30 percent. Only a few companies said delivery was almost complete. Four in five said they could not fulfil delivery contracts in full because wagons were late, incomplete or missing. The usual substitute was truck. CMA vice-president Andreas Schwenter said promised wagons arriving late, incomplete or not at all was a long-running pattern, and that the first half of 2026 had got worse.

A yard that already cannot load a full barge on the Rhine then finds the same tonne still sitting when the empty wagon fails to arrive. Domestic HMS and shredded scrap stay in the yard while the mill or the export trader waits.

What yards, traders and mills should do with the book

German electric-arc works that restarted in September have more charge demand than they did in July, and EUWID said arisings are also recovering. That combination produced a rollover, not a squeeze. Mills with healthy order books can still hold the line if they are covered. Yards that need to move tonnes before October talks should not assume a domestic markup is already in the price.

Traders booking Rotterdam or North Sea cargoes into Turkey are writing the bid that German recyclers now treat as the October support. The grade on that cargo is still HMS 1&2 80/20 or shredded. A domestic E3 or E40 sale into a German or Austrian melt is a different specification and a different freight path. Do not price one off the other without the inland or seaborne cost in the middle.

Processors and yards that depend on DB Cargo single-wagon moves should state wagon status on the offer. A confirmed empty wagon and a hoped-for wagon are different delivery weeks. If the fallback is truck, say so and say what that does to the delivered number. Mills buying inland should ask the same question before they treat a sold parcel as arriving in the next charging week.

How to name a German lot this week

Name the grade the melt already uses. German and other EU works often write E3 or E1 for heavier melting or demolition steel and E40 for fragmentiser steel. If the buyer works in export language, write HMS 1&2 80/20 or shredded 211 and say so. Do not invent a copper cap or a thickness you have not measured.

State tonnes, packing, city or load point, and whether the move is barge, rail, truck or a mix. If Rhine draft has cut the barge, say what payload is left. If the rail path needs an empty wagon from DB Cargo, say whether that wagon is confirmed. Ex-works Ruhr yard, delivered German melt and FOB Rotterdam are different offers.

Verified companies can place the parcel on live lots or post a wanted enquiry. Request access if you sell German ferrous or buy for a domestic melt or a Turkish programme.