On 12 October 2026 Recycling International reported the Turkey section of BIR’s October Ferrous World Mirror. The note says the third quarter was a turning point for Turkish steel and for the imported recycled-steel trade that supplies it. Tighter monetary policy, narrower mill margins and more protectionist steel trade have pushed producers toward just-in-time raw-material buying so they carry less inventory.
Turkey remains the largest recycled-steel importer and the usual outlet for EU and UK tonnes that do not stay in Europe. BIR’s H1 figures already showed EU deliveries to Turkey down 2.6 percent while Egypt and Pakistan took more. The October Mirror now describes why the remaining Turkey book is being bought in smaller, later stems.
Why financing changed the booking
Recycling International records that the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye held its policy rate at 37 percent, that annual consumer inflation eased to 31.75 percent in July, and that commercial lending rates of about 49 percent still weigh on producers. Second-quarter GDP grew 2.3 percent year on year and 1.1 percent quarter on quarter. The lira depreciated through the period. A mill that pays that lending rate has a reason to delay the next cargo until the heat is actually scheduled.
The same note says protectionist measures in the global steel market, shrinking export outlets for Turkish finished steel, and geopolitical risk around the Middle East and the Black Sea have reshaped the imported recycled-steel balance. After a sharp correction in July, the import market spent August and September in a narrow range. Buying resistance from Turkish mills, facing high financing costs and weak finished-steel margins, met an elevated collection and logistics cost base in Western Europe and the United States. BIR calls that a two-sided squeeze.
SteelOrbis’s 13 October Turkey import note recorded the same week as still negative after an 8 October report that the book had come off its September peaks. Those headlines describe sentiment and a correction, and they match the Mirror’s account of mills covering melt rather than restocking ahead of it.
What the two-sided squeeze means for EU and UK sellers
BIR expects recycled-steel exporters to resist lower bids because collection has slowed and because sea freight to Turkey has been lifted by the conflict in the Middle East. IREPAS in Belgrade and the October Mirror’s Scandinavian feedback already treated freight as one of the main variables on a Turkey stem. Rhine low water in the third quarter lengthened inland transit and pushed tonnes onto road and rail. A yard that needs to move metal this week and a mill that will only take the next heat are working on different calendars.
German recyclers told EUWID in September that they were waiting on a Turkish bid before October domestic mark-ups. If Turkish works are buying just-in-time, that export bid arrives later and in smaller clips. A German or Benelux seller should treat October domestic talks and a deep-sea stem as separate contracts until a cargo is actually nominated.
Exporters are expected to hold for collection cost and freight. Mills are expected to wait for the next rebar or wire-rod sale. BIR says the direction still depends on finished-steel demand and on whether Turkish financial tightening eases. Until one of those moves, a Turkey fixture is a spot stem.
Who it affects among yards, traders, mills and processors
Export-oriented EU and UK yards that treat Iskenderun or Aliaga as the default outlet for surplus HMS 1&2 80/20 or shredded 211 should expect later stems and more delayed nominations. TUIK’s January–August table still showed a larger Turkish import book than a year earlier, with the UK ahead of the Netherlands. That eight-month total is history; it does not restore a standing bid for this week’s pile.
Traders booking North Sea or Black Sea cargoes should write the load week and the freight as part of the offer. A CFR Marmara number that ignores the current sea freight, or an FOB North Sea offer that assumes the mill will take the next available vessel, will not match a just-in-time buyer. Romanian and other Black Sea origins that gained share in the TUIK table compete on the same berth. A Rotterdam loader should state origin and laycan.
Turkish electric-arc mills remain the offtake. They buy a furnace recipe in cargo size. Intra-EU mill bids are a different specification and a different freight path. Price the seaborne cost in the middle before comparing the two.
Processors preparing fragmentiser steel or heavy melting steel for export should keep the specification the mill already uses and say whether the lot is waste or end-of-waste. Turkey is an OECD member, so the 18 September draft non-OECD waste list does not close this destination in May 2027 the way it would close Egypt, India or Pakistan. The file is still a waste or end-of-waste shipment with a named plant.
How to name a Turkey-bound lot
Name HMS 1&2 80/20 if the mill is buying heavy melting, or shredded / ISRI 211 if it is fragmentiser steel. State tonnes, packing, load port or city, and whether the sale is ex-works, FOB North Sea or Black Sea, or CFR Iskenderun or Aliaga. Write the origin country and the earliest load week you can actually make. If Rhine draft or missing wagons have moved that week, say so.
Do not invent a copper cap or a thickness you have not measured. Do not offer a programme volume if the buyer is only covering the next heat.
Verified companies can place the parcel on live lots or post a wanted enquiry. Request access if you sell EU or UK ferrous or buy for a Turkish programme.